Raleigh’s Housing Market: What NAR’s Data Suggests—and What It May Mean for the Triangle

For years, the housing market has been defined by a widening gap between what homes cost and what many buyers can afford. New data from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR) suggests that in some metro areas, that relationship may be starting to shift.

Raleigh is one of the markets highlighted in NAR’s Housing Hot Spots 2026 report.

According to NAR, the report evaluates large metro areas using 10 indicators, including household demographics, income growth, migration patterns, job trends, and the relationship between home prices and local incomes. Rather than ranking markets solely by growth or price appreciation, the framework is designed to identify places where multiple conditions appear to be changing at the same time.

In Raleigh’s case, NAR points to a growing base of millennial households, continued population gains, and income growth that outpaced the previous year. NAR’s analysis also shows that the relationship between local incomes and home prices in Raleigh is more closely aligned than the national average.

One interpretation of this data is that listings in Raleigh may be appearing at price points that a larger share of local households can realistically support, relative to many other U.S. metros. This does not imply that housing in Raleigh has become broadly affordable, but it may indicate a different balance between income and pricing than is present in many markets nationwide.

NAR’s report also estimates that if mortgage rates were to move closer to 6%, nearly 27,000 additional Raleigh households could qualify for a median-priced home. According to NAR, this scenario illustrates how sensitive buyer participation in the region is to relatively small changes in borrowing costs.

National housing data suggests that Raleigh’s inclusion in NAR’s report is not occurring in isolation. Mortgage rates have remained elevated but relatively stable, with the average 30‑year rate around the low‑6% range in early 2026—down from the 7%+ levels seen earlier.

Meanwhile, national housing activity data shows that existing‑home sales were at low levels in 2025, with persistent affordability challenges due to high prices and elevated borrowing costs.

Affordability remains a central challenge across the U.S. housing market. A Bankrate analysis (cited widely in national housing coverage) found that more than 75% of homes on the market are unaffordable for the typical household income, underscoring how far prices have diverged from earnings in many regions.

Within that context, NAR’s framework focuses less on whether markets are outright affordable and more on whether local incomes and home prices are becoming more or less aligned. From that perspective, Raleigh’s data stands out not because it signals a dramatic shift in market conditions, but because it suggests incremental changes in how income growth, demographic demand, and pricing interact.

Demographic trends further contextualize NAR’s findings. According to NAR, millennials represent a disproportionately large share of households in the Raleigh metro—a factor that may help explain why demand remains resilient even amid affordability constraints.

Beyond demographics, NAR highlights income growth, job gains, and domestic migration as key variables shaping Raleigh’s housing market. These factors are widely recognized by economists and industry analysts as drivers of housing demand, although they do not guarantee improved affordability.

Taken together, these indicators suggest that Raleigh’s housing market is not defined by a single factor such as price growth or inventory levels. Instead, it reflects a combination of demographic momentum, economic conditions, and affordability dynamics.

One interpretation of NAR’s findings is that Raleigh may be experiencing a gradual recalibration in how these forces interact. Rather than demand consistently outpacing buyer capacity, the data suggests that the relationship between incomes and home prices may be evolving in ways that could expand participation for some households under certain conditions.

This should not be understood as a prediction of easier market conditions. Instead, it highlights how structural factors—such as income growth and demographic composition—may influence the market’s trajectory.

NAR’s report does not suggest that Raleigh’s housing market has become predictable or broadly affordable. Inventory constraints persist, and mortgage rates remain elevated compared with pre‑2022 levels.

However, the underlying dynamics identified by NAR—demographic demand, income growth, migration patterns, and relative income‑to‑price alignment—may indicate that Raleigh’s market is evolving in ways that differ from many other metros.

For buyers, this may mean that changes in mortgage rates or income levels could have a more noticeable impact on qualification and timing than in markets where affordability gaps are wider.

For sellers, NAR’s findings may suggest that buyer capacity, rather than scarcity alone, could play an increasingly visible role in shaping outcomes.

The key takeaway is not that Raleigh’s housing market is becoming easier. According to NAR’s analysis, it may be becoming more structurally nuanced.

Understanding that nuance—rather than relying on headlines or broad national narratives—may be essential for anyone making decisions in the Triangle housing market in 2026.